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The Globe and Mail – Investing

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The Globe and Mail – Investing https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rss/section/investing/
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Gold stocks, in a deep slump as the broader market rallies, could be worth a contrarian look https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-gold-stocks-in-a-deep-slump-as-the-broader-market-rallies-could-be/?cmpid=rss
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<div><img src=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/AL6H-KNQnOAE_9BUqths_cYIJ2A=/1200×0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/KRYVRV57AZAOHCSRXOHD4WCHFE” class=”ff-og-image-inserted”></div><p class=”c-article-body__text”>Here’s a trade for stubborn contrarians: Buy gold or the shares of gold producers now that they are out of favour and well off their highs.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Did we mention that this is a contrarian trade? Gold futures have tumbled 9.1 per cent this year, with bullion down US$340 an ounce from its high in August, making gold a dud among commodities.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Gold stocks, which are generally leveraged bets on the commodity, are suffering even more.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-1″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS index, a collection of stocks that includes Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Barrick Gold Corp. , Kinross Gold Corp. and Yamana Gold Inc. , is down about 15 per cent this year. Barrick shares have fallen about 36 per cent since September.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>That’s a lot of pain, especially when broad indexes continue to rise with the recovering global economy and vaccine rollouts. The S&amp;P 500 notched a record high on Thursday.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The case for buying gold as its popularity takes a beating: The market may be too pessimistic about the commodity while ignoring factors that could give it a lift.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The current conditions certainly mark a dramatic shift from last year. Ultralow interest rates helped drive investor appetite for gold last year, as declining bond yields meant there was little benefit in holding on to a commodity that produces no income. What’s more, tremendous economic uncertainty raised the allure of gold as a haven asset.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>In August, 2020, the price of gold rose to a record high of US$2,069.40 an ounce, eclipsing its previous record nine years earlier. Gold’s year-to-date gain of 36 per cent at the time easily outshone gains of less than 5 per cent for the S&amp;P 500, not to mention other major stock indexes. Even better, the Gold BUGS index was up about 50 per cent over the same period.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Gold’s decline since then comes as investors turn more optimistic about the global economic recovery and no longer have a need for havens. Rising bond yields may be reflecting this optimism, further dulling the allure of gold since it pays no income.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose as high as 1.77 per cent on March 30, a 14-month high and up from just 0.54 per cent when the price of gold was exploring record highs last summer.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-2″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>If central banks start raising their key interest rates sooner than expected – which the bond market may be betting on – gold could take another beating.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>But the bullish case is compelling.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>First, gold and the stock market have been diverging (stocks up, gold down), giving gold an attractive attribute: It provides diversification if the stock market turns volatile because of, say, stretched valuations or disappointing corporate profit growth.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Second, Goldman Sachs noted last month that the lower price of gold is already reflecting considerably higher real interest rates (or returns on government bonds after anticipated inflation). That means that the commodity should be able to withstand rising bond yields, according to the investment bank, and will perform well if inflation picks up, <a href=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-wall-of-worry-investors-brace-for-inflation-threat-as-global-stimulus/” target=”_blank”>which some economists expect</a>.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>“A continuation of expansionary<b> </b>fiscal policy and [Thursday’s] ISM figures out of the United States support our view that core inflation there will exceed the Federal Reserve’s expectations over the next few years,” Jonathan Peterson, markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Third, there may even be a technical element at work in depressing the price of gold, which could blow over. Commerzbank noted that gold fell in late March after a massive US$20-billion margin call on a hedge fund – <a href=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-debacle-at-archegos-throws-excessive-risk-taking-into-spotlight/” target=”_blank”>Archegos Capital</a> – triggered forced selling of a number of stocks.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-3″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>“Gold may also have been sold in the process in a bid to generate liquidity,” Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said in a note.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Both Commerzbank and Goldman Sachs recently lowered their year-end price targets for gold to US$2,000 an ounce from $2,300 previously, reflecting the commodity’s slide in recent months. Enthusiasm for gold is clearly down, but that’s okay for contrarians.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><i>Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. </i><a href=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/newsletters/#newsletter-group-3″ target=”_blank”><i>Sign up today</i></a><i>.</i></p> <p><strong><a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org”></a></strong> <a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org/acceptable.html”>(Why?)</a></p> Thu, 01 Apr 2021 22:53:24 +0000 David Berman
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When it comes to the taxman, self-employed individuals need to pay attention to details https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/taxes/article-when-it-comes-to-the-taxman-self-employed-individuals-need-to-pay/?cmpid=rss
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<div><img src=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/KuheE5TFAEB18SUuvgAjrBoc-M8=/1200×0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/DEDLBZLCGNEVBJCFUNG6ECETSU.jpg” class=”ff-og-image-inserted”></div><p class=”c-article-body__text”>Okay, I’m now convinced. You can make money doing just about anything. Take Jason Zook for example, who started a business called <a href=”https://wanderingaimfully.com/iwearyourshirt/” target=”_blank”>I Wear Your Shirt.</a> For about five years, Mr. Zook supplied his services to more 1,600 small businesses, Fortune 500 companies, and others. He was paid to simply wear T-shirts provided to him by these businesses and promote them online. He made more than US$1-million during those years.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Over the past year I’ve spoken with countless Canadians who have started small businesses during the pandemic. If you’re one of these folks, keep a few things in mind as you prepare your taxes for 2020.</p> <ol class=”c-article-body__ol”> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Losses can save you taxes.</b> If you earned any income in 2020 providing goods or services to others, you may be entitled to some deductions – even if you didn’t earn much. One man I spoke with earned $1,500 delivering stuff with his pickup truck. “I probably spent more on gas, repairs and insurance than I made” he said. He plans to continue with these services and expects to earn more in 2021. Many businesses lose money in their first year or two, but this doesn’t mean you can’t claim deductions. This guy may very well report a loss in 2020 from his business, but this will only save him taxes because those losses will be applied against any other income he earned in 2020.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Losses can’t go on forever.</b> If you report losses from your business year after year, the taxman might conclude that you don’t have an actual business, but perhaps a hobby. Are you really trying to earn a profit? If the taxman concludes that your activity is not sufficiently commercial in nature, and is more akin to a hobby, you’ll have a problem deducting your losses. After three years or so of claiming losses, you may draw attention to your tax return.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>A business extends your deadline.</b> If you or your spouse report any type of self-employment on your personal tax return, then your tax filing deadline is automatically extended to June 15, 2021, although you’ll face interest on any taxes owing that are not paid by April 30, 2021.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Deduct home-office expenses.</b> You can claim a deduction for home-office expenses if you meet one of these tests: (1) your home office is your principal place of business (you spend at least half of your working hours in that office), or (2) your home office is used exclusively for business purposes and is used on a regular and continuous basis for meeting clients, customers, or patients. When it comes to deductions, you can claim a portion of hydro, heat, water, repairs and maintenance – the same as any employee that qualifies to deduct home office expenses – and you can add a portion of mortgage interest, property taxes and insurance to this list as well. The portion of these costs that you can deduct is based on the percentage of your home that is used for business purposes, and on the percentage of time you use that space for business. And while you can claim capital cost allowance (CCA, or depreciation for tax purposes) on your home, it’s not recommended because you could jeopardize the principal residence exemption when selling your home later. By the way, you can’t create or increase a loss from your self-employment when deducting home-office expenses.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Claim meals and entertainment:</b> You can claim half of any meals and entertainment costs.<b> </b>Sorry, but the taxman won’t allow a deduction for golf green fees or golf memberships. When lockdowns are over, take a client with you when you eat out and make the meal partly deductible.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Deduct your vehicle costs:</b> If you use your car for business, you can deduct a portion of all related costs including gas, insurance, repairs, licence fees, auto club dues, car loan interest, lease costs and CCA on your vehicle. The deductible portion is based on the number of kilometres driven for business as a percentage of the total kilometres driven in the year.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Don’t forget capital assets:</b> The cost of any equipment you use in your business, including things in your home, can be deducted over time through the CCA system. I’m talking about things like desks, chairs, filing cabinets, computers, cellphones and computer software. It’s a CCA deduction for these things that can really help to reduce your tax bill and might even create a loss from your business for the year, resulting in tax savings.</li> <li class=”c-article-body__li”><b>Other expenses may be deductible.</b> You can also claim any costs that were incurred for the purpose of earning income from your business if they are reasonable in amount. This opens the door to all kinds of deductions. Some restrictions may apply (convention costs are an example – although there weren’t many conventions in 2020).</li> </ol> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><i>Tim Cestnick, FCPA, FCA, CPA(IL), CFP, TEP, is an author, and co-founder and CEO of Our Family Office Inc. He can be reached at </i><a href=”mailto:tim@ourfamilyoffice.ca”><i>tim@ourfamilyoffice.ca</i></a><i>.</i></p> <p><strong><a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org”></a></strong> <a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org/acceptable.html”>(Why?)</a></p> Thu, 01 Apr 2021 22:00:00 +0000 Tim Cestnick
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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/taxes/article-when-it-comes-to-the-taxman-self-employed-individuals-need-to-pay/?cmpid=rss


Is an economic recovery priced into markets? Market experts weigh in https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-is-an-economic-recovery-priced-into-markets-market-experts-weigh-in/?cmpid=rss
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<div><img src=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/-L0Bj1_Os90xOYJEcDw_KPS5cgY=/1200×0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/TZ7FT7NONZPH7H3VV3DNTG6HWM.JPG” class=”ff-og-image-inserted”></div><p class=”c-article-body__text”>Value stocks, those chronic underperformers of the market that suffered a further blow as the pandemic took hold last year, have been on the comeback trail in 2021.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Often belonging to cyclical industries linked to the gyrations of the economy, value stocks attracted investor interest as the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines built confidence that business and life were set to eventually return to more normal conditions. At the same time, the fast-growing, pricey technology and stay-at-home stocks that were the market’s darlings at the start of the pandemic have lost some of their appeal.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>So far this year, the MSCI World Value Index is up about 10 per cent, compared with a decline of 0.4 per cent for its growth counterpart, as of Tuesday in U.S. dollars.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-1″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>This has translated into a solid start for the S&amp;P/TSX Composite Index this year relative to the much larger and flashier equity market south of the border. The Canadian benchmark is up 8.9 per cent so far this year as of Thursday – ahead of the S&amp;P 500 index’s 7-per-cent rise – thanks in large part to its heavy weighting in sectors considered more value than growth: financials, industrials, materials and energy.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>But over the past few weeks, that rotation into value has started to wobble, with cyclical and growth names trading places almost daily as the market’s best performers.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Money managers are debating whether the latest market moves are a sign that the economic recovery that’s widely expected in the months ahead is now nearly fully priced into markets. And where will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, so influential in setting the direction of stock markets and which hit fresh 14-month highs above 1.7 per cent on Tuesday, head next?</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Here are what several market strategists and portfolio managers are thinking.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>Alfred Lee, portfolio manager and investment strategist, BMO Global Asset Management:</b></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>There’s a lot of optimism of an economic reopening [that is] priced into the broader market, when we look at traditional measures of valuation such as current price-to-earnings ratios. However, should we continue to see the vaccination rollout as scheduled, and we are able to get back to normal life, we can really see earnings for companies accelerate in the second half, particularly with so much pent-up demand.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We believe value stocks have more room to run. They typically tend to outperform for the first several years coming out of a crisis, as they are trading at a lower valuation for a reason. Most [value stocks] have been more negatively impacted by the lockdowns, so they are now more leveraged to benefit from that economic reopening trade.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-2″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We believe the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield probably ends the year between 2.25 per cent and 2.4 per cent. Asset allocators are probably already seeing some value with the current level in bonds, and if yields go up any more, they may likely start taking some risk off the table by moving equities into fixed income, which will naturally put a lid on how far yields can rise.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>If not, the Fed can also implement an Operation Twist similar to in 2011 [when the central bank sold near-term Treasuries to buy longer-dated ones], in order to flatten the yield curve. If yields rise too far and too fast, it can potentially stall the economic recovery as it can limit demand for loans and mortgages. So the Fed does have additional tools to work with should interest rates not level off naturally.</p> <hr> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>David Rosenberg, founder of independent research firm </b><a href=”https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/”><b>Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates</b></a><b>:</b></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Looking at the fact that we have a S&amp;P 500 price-to-earnings multiple on 2022 earnings – not this year, but next year – of over 19 times, you know a whole lot of positive earnings news is in the price.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>From an investment perspective, I am concerned that this “reopening trade” has taken on a gospel-like character driven by speculative fund flows – investors have plowed US$11.5-billion into U.S. large-cap value exchange-traded funds this year, versus nearly US$4-billion in outflows from similar growth funds. As one speculative fervour ended, another one has begun.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-3″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The Treasury market right now has the same peak inflation and funds rate priced in that we experienced in the last cycle when the unemployment rate hit a 50-year low of 3.5 per cent. The bond vigilantes have decided to wage war with the Fed, and more often than not, it is the central bank that comes out on top. So I would say that at a minimum, bonds are fair value where they are priced right now.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We continue to believe that infrastructure [spending] is not at all a sure thing and that the U.S. economy will relapse once this gargantuan stimulus cheque program runs its course, and that the savings rate will stay elevated at a higher level and for longer than the consensus believes. But our view will have to wait until the second half of the year to play out. Investors are treating the reflation/inflation view as a sure thing and there is no such thing as a sure thing.</p> <hr> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist for Invesco:</b></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>[The 10-year bond yield’s] rapid increase reflects growing optimism about robust economic growth once the economy reopens. However, I believe it can rise significantly higher in the next several months as the economic outlook improves. Similarly, the rotation into value and cyclical names reflects that same expectation about a solid economic recovery. I don’t believe the robustness of the recovery is fully priced in; that should send value and cyclical stocks significantly higher in the next several months.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We might see another leg up in the fall where the 10-year rises to as high as 2.5 per cent or even a bit higher; however, I would expect it to settle down closer to 2 per cent [at year end] as there is recognition that the surge in spending is relatively short-lived, and that conditions such as higher taxes and a high government debt burden are likely to weigh on economic growth over the longer term. We also have to recognize that if the 10-year yield were to rise high enough and create ‘disorderly conditions’ in markets this year, the Fed is likely to step in with some tool such as Operation Twist, which would likely take down yields to a lower level that is more palatable to markets.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-4″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <hr> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>Brett Ewing, chief market strategist, First Franklin Financial Services:</b></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We believe the reopening trade is getting overdone but for a specific reason – a lot of the major momentum strategies and exchange-traded funds will be rebalancing in the next few months, and if nothing changes they will be switching from a predominantly tech portfolio to more cyclical holdings. Funds know they will have a ready and willing buyer to sell to at any price.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We are also watching a strong bottoming formation in the U.S. dollar, which could also be a negative for hard asset plays. Because of this, we believe that the cyclical rotation and rapidly rising rates will last another month or so, and then the boat will steady itself and the world (in almost all things) will return to normal.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We think the market is searching for something [negative] in a sea of green shoots, and the rapidly rising 10-year yield is the most obvious one on which to focus. If we look a little closer, however, the 10-year is just now hitting levels we were at pre-COVID, representing an asset class that took a longer time to normalize.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Going forward, we know the narrative is that with the amount of money supply growth, inflation will take hold and yields will just continue to rise. However, we think the rate of change is just as important as the trajectory, if not more so, and we believe it will begin to slow.</p> <div class=”j-f-wrap”> <div class=”u-wrapper pb-feature pb-layout-item pb-f-commercial-dfp-ads” id> <div class> <div id=”c-ad–flex-gpt-5″ class=”c-ad c-ad–inline c-ad–flex” readability=”6″> <div class=”c-ad__wrapper” readability=”7″> <p class=”c-ad__message”>Story continues below advertisement</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>The U.S. still has an employment and productivity issue, and the massive investment in technology will continue to create efficiencies that should help with long-term inflation rates.</p> <hr> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>Christine Poole, CEO and managing director of GlobeInvest Capital Management:</b></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Stock markets have further upside as long as profit expectations are met and corporate profits continue to grow into next year. The S&amp;P 500 index is about 17 per cent above [its February, 2020] prepandemic high, with a price-to-earnings of 22.5 times based on consensus 2021 earnings. The S&amp;P/TSX is about 4 per cent above [its February, 2020] prepandemic high, with a P/E of 17.3 times consensus 2021 earnings. The relative underperformance of the TSX from prior highs combined with a lower P/E multiple suggests there is still more room for the valuation gap between growth and value stocks to narrow. With the vaccination rollout, particularly in the U.S., occurring at a quicker pace than originally expected, the trajectory of the economic recovery is also steeper than expectations at the start of the year. Household net worth in both Canada and the U.S. are at record highs, so consumers are well positioned to deploy spending as economies and service industries reopen.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>I expect the [U.S. 10-year] yield to continue to move upwards as economies reopen, pent up demand kicks in and the U.S. economy strengthens. Inflation will be a key driver of the bond yield and even the Fed expects inflation to accelerate (temporarily) this year and then recede back to the 2 per cent level.</p> <hr> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><b>Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute</b>:</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>Given how broad-based we expect the restart to be, the likely magnitude of the pickup in economic data may still be underappreciated. We express our cyclical tilt through an overweight in small-cap stocks, and remain neutral on value, which we upgraded from underweight in the second half of last year.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”>We have been underweight U.S. Treasuries for the past quarter. Even though in the medium term we expect yields to push higher, our belief is that a large part of the repricing has already happened.</p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><i>Responses have been edited and condensed.</i></p> <p class=”c-article-body__text”><i>Your time is valuable. Have the Top Business Headlines newsletter conveniently delivered to your inbox in the morning or evening. </i><a href=”https://www.theglobeandmail.com/newsletters/?utm_source=Arcnewsletter&amp;utm_medium=onsite&amp;utm_campaign=fixed_positions&amp;utm_term=signuppage&amp;utm_content=topbusiness_promo#newsletter-group-2″><i>Sign up today</i></a><i>.</i></p> <p><strong><a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org”></a></strong> <a href=”https://blockads.fivefilters.org/acceptable.html”>(Why?)</a></p> Thu, 01 Apr 2021 20:53:37 +0000 Darcy Keith
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